THE POLLSTERS - "The Hill"
Mark Mellman
Mark S. Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982.
Attn. Dems: Dean can’t beat Bush
A paradox is haunting Democrats. Commentators repeatedly note that, as much as anything else, Democrats want a candidate who can beat George Bush. Yet the current front-runner is the Democrat least likely to succeed in removing Bush from the White House. (OK, I work for one of his opponents, but facts are facts.)
Howard Dean accomplished some amazing things last year for which he deserves tremendous credit, but they have come at a cost. While the former Vermont governor is turning Democrats on, he is turning off swing independents.
Perhaps the pre-eminent symbol of Dean’s severe general-election problem is his standing in New Hampshire. Nowhere, outside of Vermont, is he better-known. Nowhere else has Dean spent as much money, time and energy courting voters. He has catapulted himself into a significant lead in the Democratic primary.
But recent polling makes it clear that despite all the ads, despite all the time he has spent and the press coverage he has generated, Dean is in desperate straits in a New Hampshire general election where he trails Bush by an astounding 27 points (57 percent Bush, 30 percent Dean). And this is a state Bill Clinton won and a state Al Gore lost by only 7,211 votes. But Dean has alienated all those who do not identify as Democrats. Less than 1 percent of Republicans would vote for Dean, while 14 percent of Democrats support Bush. Most troubling is the fact that Dean garners only 11 percent among swing independents (undeclared) while Bush gets 63 percent of this vote. Moreover, this poll predates the capture of Saddam Hussein.
Dean’s serious troubles are evident in a variety of other states as well. Florida is central, but Dean loses by 23 points. Arizona is a state we hope to bring into the Democratic column in ‘04, but Dean lags 15 points behind Bush. Democrats always hope for Ohio, but Bush has a 19-point advantage over Dean.
Dean says he hopes to make gains in the South, but his clumsy handling of the Confederate flag issue has only made that goal more elusive. He is 21 points behind Bush in Virginia and 22 points behind in North Carolina.
Dean’s desperate general election straits also are clearly evident in national polls. A Washington Post poll at the end of December showed a generic Democrat trailing Bush by just 9 points (50 percent to 41 percent) while Dean trails Bush by 18 points (55 percent to 37 percent). Among independents, a generic Democrat trails Bush by 12 points (50 percent to 38 percent) while Dean loses to Bush by 21 points (56 percent to 35 percent).
The recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Bush having opened up a 23-point lead over Dean, while NBC/Wall Street Journal pegs Dean’s deficit at 21 points. CBS found Bush 20 points ahead.
Some may counter with another poll taken over New Year’s weekend that shows Dean much closer. I frankly wouldn’t pay any attention at all to one poll, taken on one of the worst polling days imaginable. Moreover, those same sponsors released a poll yesterday showing Bush with a 22-point lead over Dean.
Dean’s weakness is not just a function of Bush strength. The president leads a generic Democrat by just one to seven points, depending on the pollster and specific questions. Dean trails by much larger margins. A number of state and national polls also indicate that other Democrats, including (my client) Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), run more strongly against Bush than does Dean.
Democrats who want a general election winner should think twice.
USA Today’s cartoonist summed up Democrats’ dilemma last week with a picture of a thousand dollar check written to the Dean campaign by Bush-Cheney ’04. The memo tells Dean to simply “keep talking!!!!”
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