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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (4583)	1/8/2004 2:39:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Metals on my Mind Minyanville hired a new gold analyst. Laurie My fellow Minyans, Professor-to-be Laurie McGuirk offers his thoughts on the metals from his perch in Australia. Please note that nothing in his missive is intended as advice and we offer his thoughts--and everything else on Minyanville--with educational intents. Enjoy. Hope everyone had a good break.At least it was 90 degrees down here so the beer and prawns went down nicely. Pity about the snow for our Northern Hemisphere mates.... tough! I was surprised a little at gold/silver in late Dec.Nice moves.Silver was totally expected... but I love Silver! .Gold - just doing what its supposed to. Whats the bigger issue... premature speculation or premature evacuation? I think we could be 5 years from evacuation stations. Gold equities have stalled and drifting lower- fine- but can one afford not to stay with ones positions when stocks move 15% in a day?? I expect that we may see a nice dip and buy opportunity to re allocate assets from the paper sphere to the commodity world. The metals have been on a tear lately.The old regulars--gold,silver,ally,copper--and even nickel and lead(??) have had a great run the past week/month/year or two....it must stop, right? Whatever. "Its all to do with the Dollar!" Whatever."Gold is a barbarous relic". Whatever."Silver will be worthless once digital photo takes over".Whatever..sorry, but have heard it all before. Commodities is a funny game that leaves many crying....here we go again. Gold is, in my opinion, getting ready for a wild next few weeks. We may see close to $393 (for the really fast players) and potentially above $440. "Monetary Metals", almost an oxymoron if one has the Federal Reserve Bank as ny kind of reference, appears will be "the GO". Lets see what happens. Gold hit a low of $417.50 as I pen, but I defer to the fact that India and most of Asia and the Middle East arent too fussed at these levels and are buying. I doubt we see $411 the next few days without serious currency moves. India's currency and stock market are on a roll and as such are readily comfortable in providing the extra few US dollars required to buy REAL METAL. India is the biggest gold importer by far and should not be disregarded. Too much history there to ignore. There's no inflation but ... My mates at Bear Sterns research show me that we have seen the past 12 months .... CPI Increase 1.8% PPI Increase 3.4% Energy Up 25% Food Down 5% Grains Up 18% Livestock Square Industrial Metals up 40% Precious Metals up 18% Hmmmm. Some of the base metals have been hit hard the last few sessions. Copper and nickel leading the way. They have run a long way the past few months. Markets don't go one way...but they do trend. Hmmm. My guess is the trend isn't down! There's always a second chance for the latecomers!Personally--and this is not advice--I am looking for buying opportunities. Stay with what you know and what you are comfortable with! Laurie

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