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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.48-4.8%Dec 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (12959)1/8/2004 10:01:23 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 95574
 
>> The bulls are romping and stomping

Hi Don. Well each day that we get such a good price rise makes the sell decision closer for me. Today I sold just enough to eliminate the little bit of margin I had. Still 100% invested. Though not 110% as I had been for several months.

I really think today's price rise makes a good old-fashioned 10% to 20% correction in the nasdaq much more likely. back under 2000. The question is when will it be, and what will be the precipitating event ?

We'll get an opportunity tomorrow to see which model the stock market is following.

My guess is that a really good employment figure (jobs addition over 200,000) will drive stock prices negatively. Because of fear of Fed raising.

And so will a very weak number (under 100,000). For fear of economy sputtering.

However a middle number (150,000 addition) will be just right to keep the gains going into earnings announcements.

I'll be looking to see if this model is supported by tomorrow's reaction.

I'm very convinced that nasdaq 2300 if reached quickly (by April) , will trigger the correction ahead of Q1 reports. My self-appointed task is to sell all at nasdaq 2250.

I hope you were riding some good horses today.

Sarmad
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