Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 302.00

+2.6%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (12965)	1/8/2004 10:24:32 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (3) of 95388

This bull run has been supported by high total put to call ratios. We both know that every time the market has looked like it would top we got a bunch of put buying. Total put to call numbers are falling. This is bearish. This will ultimately be significant unless we get put buyers in a hurry. In addition the very low VIX/VXO both scored 10% readings below their 10 day moving averages scores today. This is bearish. The TRIN and TRINQ are extremely low on both 5 day and 10 day sma's. This is bearish. The CPC/VIX ratio is falling and is now closer to a 21 day sma 200 day sma cross over than at any time since this bull run began. There are lots of good reasons to be concerned Gottfried. Could a period of consolidation satisfy my concerns? Sure if that's all it takes to turn around the overwhelming amount of complacency. I am expecting the next top to be marked by another gap and crap. It could happen as early as tomorrow. It might be a while longer but probably not too long in my humble opinion. RtS

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