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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4665)1/9/2004 4:53:55 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
<EVERYBODY LOVES>

Commodities and currencies are clearly set up for a counter-reaction, but it will be a rate increase that will cause it. I think I'm supported by the COTs on this. The "everybody loves" speculators are heavily LONG, not short Eurodollars, and they are LONG, not short 5UST. But you are right about the rest, the "everybody" crowd is way too long the Yen, gold and other commodity currencies like the Aussie and Loonie.
commitmentsoftraders.com

So I think this supports where I've been heading of late. It will be Prof Plum (the Fed and other CBs), with a lead pipe (surprise rate increase), in the kitchen (to support the USD, and cool off input inflation). This will cause a brief, but possibly impressive countertrend rally in the USD, and a correction in everything else that "everybody loves" (especially stocks in general). I would consider this a buying opportunity once the dancing competition clears out
money.cnn.com
for what I love (currencies, commodities, and gold) especially if the CB effort is half assed (likely). The shorter dated UST will not be spared, although possibly the long dated will (at least for the time being).
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