I'm all for the Heinlein approach Bill. But there's a snag. No private property rights in space. Ain't gonna get nowhere without that. Private property rights require an assertion of sovereignty by a state as guarantor, and that's already been decided with that pesky space treaty. No one else would recognize a US assertion of property rights to the moon or anywhere, which would be a definite Too Big Risk to Bother With for business. Until that changes, at best we can hope for a public-private coop.
I'd love to see human footprints on Mars in my lifetime. With the modifications NASA made to the model plan after Zubrin showed them how it could be done, the cost of a Mars Direct mission is around 60 billion. Say 100 billion for insurance. And that's doing it the expensive way. Mars is still the luxury mission however.
I've become more convinced of the advantages of a moon base over the years. First of all, its close. No one seriously suggests anymore that a moonbase would "support a Mars mission" by landing and relaunching spacecraft from the Moon. The Moon is the perfect, 3-day away testbed for Mars mission technology. Any reasonable Mars mission is going to leave astronauts on a far away planet for up to 2 years. Better to do the proof of concept on the moon than a couple million miles away.
Second, there are obvious research advantages to the moon as contrasted with the white elephant in orbit we currently waste money on. Moon based telescopes and a near-zero gravity environment.
Third, one of the reasons for the high cost of getting tonnage into orbit is the lack of economies of scale. There simply aren't enough launches to spread cost out over. I would imagine that having to make regular, frequent supply and taxi runs to the moon, with the prospect of contracting such launches out to private firms, would bring down the cost of getting tonnage into space, further opening up the space frontier.
Fourth, I'm a proponent of moon-based or orbital solar power generation. The surface of the moon is stable, sunlit, and has almost all the elements in situ to build solar panels, and no atmosphere. The profit motive is pretty obvious, here.
I've been thinking about this, as you see. :)
Derek |
