How does Dell reach $40 ?
Dell has gone up about $1 mo for the past yr, with an average price @ $30
Dell earnings have gone up 25%/yr or 2 % a month. Which is only $.6 mo.
Nas has gone up about 3.5%mo. , equivalent to a $1/ mo increase in Dell
Dell reached 37 in November, and has dropped a bit recently, yet Dell performs better than the average Nas stock
It is then reasonable to assume Dell will go up $1 per month if the Nas can hold together and not dip too much
$37 in November was on the curve, so I would use that as a reference and Nov+ Dec+ Jan provides a $3 increase to $40
With earnings in early Feb, and Dell talking positive,
and computer sales up then Dell should get a pre-earnings increase in price in early Feb.
Conclusion:
Dell should hit 40 by ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh- Feb 5 th, which is not that far away.
BUT we cant have much really bad news to tank the Nas or all bets are off. It could be flat, it could dip a bit, but if no tankee I would see about $42 just before earnings time.
You will have to figure the odds.
Sig
Feb 2003 EPS was up 23%
Nov 2003 EPS was up 26%
Analysts estimates for 04 is 18.9% versus industry growth of 20%
Does anyone believe that HPQ, IBM, Gtw, Mu, or others are going to have better returns than Dell?
Is Dell going to lose market share someway(hahahahahahaha)
Hehehehehehehe. Choke.
November 13, 2003
<<<Dell's overall volume growth of 22 percent enabled it to gain 1.5 points of additional global market share. Product shipments in five strategic markets—China, France, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom—rose a combined 32 percent in the third quarter.
Asia-Pacific and Japan led the company's regional growth with a 35-percent increase, nearly three times the combined rate of other companies. Dell's strength in the region was most profound in servers and notebook computers, which were up 37 and 36 percent, respectively.
Company performance in China was exceptional, including a 67-percent increase in volumes of servers and a 70-percent gain in notebook computers. The company's 25-percent growth in Japan moved it to the No. 3 share position in the market, up from No. 4 a year ago.
Total Dell shipments in Europe, the Middle East and Africa increased 26 percent, seven points ahead of the average for the rest of the industry. Volumes were up 24 percent or more in every regional product category. Technology Business Research (TBR) for the first time ranked Dell No. 1 in U.K. customer satisfaction in servers, notebook computers and desktop computers at the same time. Based on TBR's most recent surveys, the company also holds the same distinction in all three product categories in France and Germany.
Dell's 30-percent shipment growth in the U.K. was more than twice the rest of the industry, as the company gained nearly three points of share from a year ago and reclaimed market leadership. Server shipments in France increased 37 percent, more than double the industry without Dell.
Company product shipments in the Americas and the United States rose 20 percent, strongly ahead of the average of other companies. Dell systems sold to U.S. consumers were up 28 percent, while those to small and medium businesses and federal, state and local governments both increased 22 percent.>>> |
