michael finsterwald, While I agree we're due for a pullback, news like that just doesn't matter on Wall Street...
Never did, never will...
Now here's a few things to consider...
biz.yahoo.com
>> There are some signs that the bomb could start to go off: The American Bankers Association just reported that the percentage of consumers who were late on their credit card bills hit a record high in the third quarter of last year, and retail sales during the holidays were disappointing, despite very easy year-over-year comps. <<
This is the main reason to keep rates low, so the "consumer" can keep rolling over that debt...
>> Valuations
According to the Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 is trading at 28 times trailing earnings and 20 times 2004 estimates. The Nasdaq is at 63 times and 39 times, respectively, while the Russell 2000 has negative trailing earnings (hence, no P/E) and is trading at 41 times 2004 estimates. These figures are far above historical averages, and the multiples are especially egregious in the most popular sectors such as the Internet, nanotechnology, biotech, and semiconductors. It's mind-boggling that so many investors are piling back into the same sectors that crushed them only a short while ago, like moths drawn to a flame. <<
This is it, this will be the ultimate make or break of this market. For us to reverse course we need companies (and I don't mean 1 or 2) to start saying things are not what they expected. If we get any hints of this from this earnings season it could be good-night Mr. Market, but if we get any hint of earnings upward guidance or even a hint that new orders are flowing in then we need to keep pushing the inevitable out to the next qtr. Of course we'll see signs of this showing up in the charts before it actually happens, but to just "guess" is just that "a guess"...
>> I fear investors are repeating the deadly mistake of projecting the immediate past indefinitely into the future and pricing stocks accordingly. They are acting as if the future is quite certain, when it is in fact highly uncertain. <<
Take a look at the bubble of 1999 to 2000, there were 18 months of giddiness...
stockcharts.com[r,a]macayyay[pb7!b25!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ua12,26,9!Lh14,3!Ll14]&pref=G
EOM
Shoreco
>> the markets are overbought and foreign money is already pulling out <<
Yes, but the American bag holder (LTBH'er) is just starting to feel like he/she is missing the boat... |
