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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (157)8/13/1997 11:21:00 PM
From: Rarebird   of 5676
 
Mohan, the problem I have with anyone trying to forecast the general direction of the stock market over the short term is that its extremely difficult to do and be accurate. It's very similar to buying a naked call or put on an individual security: Option speculators are wrong 85% of the time. Yes, their basically right when it comes to predicting the general trend or direction of a stock, but their usually wrong in terms of their time frame. Furthermore, I respectfully disagree on mutual fund inflows. The fact is that the baby boom generation is flush with cash and they are saving for retirement and their not ready to pull their money out yet. Don't underestimate them: They have done better than 90% of all the so-called professionals in the financial industry. The financial crowd is untruth to them ( including chairman Greenspan)! I don't think you know what your dealing with here and how committed they are. You know what they did to the real estate market here in the 80's. I'm telling you their not finished with the stock market yet. You know the saying: You aint seen nothing yet! I view the most recent action as profit taking and digesting some of the big gains made so far this year. Sentiment changes very quickly Mohan because CHANGE IS THE REALITY OF LIFE. With a tame CPI this market can easily revert back to Goldilocks again and rally. Moreover, given the present backdrop and two tier nature of the American economy, 10% corrections will be bought with a passion.
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