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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (4750)	1/11/2004 9:43:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

The No-Bang, All-Whimper Recovery Economists had forecast an increase of 150,000 jobs in December. They were off by a mere 149,000. Other aspects of the employment figures disappointed, too. More than 300,000 people dropped out of the job pool and the index of hours worked fell below the level of 1998. The manufacturing sector shed jobs, as it had for the previous 40 months, but so did the retail and financial service industries. Finally, November's upbeat job report was revised downward. One economist who was unsurprised by the figures is Stephen S. Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. Arguing for months that a lasting recovery cannot be built on an increasingly indebted consumer, a declining savings rate and widening current-account and trade deficits, Mr. Roach's has been a voice in the wilderness. ----------- We had a spectacular second half of '03 in G.D.P. because of tax cuts, the last-gasp spending of the refinance cycle and price cuts on motor vehicles, Mr. Roach said. But we haven't had job growth and income generation. Consumers can't continue to carry the ball with their incomes lagging. nytimes.com

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