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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (4785)	1/11/2004 2:14:16 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) of 110194

What are your early indicators of a coming turn? In no particular order: employment, which we have already discussed. This is an easy indicator to watch, with weekly news releases. FRE and FNM, this could be the S&L disaster of 2004. I think congress needs to decide one way or another - are they totally public or not, not ambigiously in between. This is an easy indicator to watch, unfortunately, the timing is not that predictable. Interest rate is important, of course, as well as underwriting guidelines. The Feds have pretty much promised that they will keep the short term rates low to help those benefitting from carry trades. So if mortgage rates go up, it will be out of the Fed's hands? This is a very easy indicator to watch, with daily rate sheets. Real estate has to stop appreciating. Everyone who bought with low downpayment, such as the 5%, the VA/FHAs, are automatically under water if they want to sell. This will lead directly to change in inventory and demand for that inventory. This is very difficult to follow because it will be very regional. That is why I think the MI companies could be a good source of information. Others?

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