|
Stingray, the stock market is up about 25% this year. If the CPI numbers are tame and the market is flat, that doesn't mean its weak. All it means is that it is taking a breather after the big July ( and year) run up. There is excessive pessimisim in the market now, which, by the way, is BULLISH. People have a right to take pause and wonder how long will the party continue to last? That doesn't mean we are on the verge of a crash or major correction. You say little direction? I've just seen a big move in July and thus far in August sideways action with a downward bias. This market can move sideways and churn for another 3 months before it takes another leg up. What you call fear, I call worry. As you know, bull markets climb walls of worry. I agree with you that long term ( 5 years out) a 7% bond yield is quite attractive. I basically agree, technically speaking, with the bearish sentiment on this thread. It's just that I know and feel in my gut that this bull market won't end until we get a real major speculative blow off amongst the small caps. Historically speaking, that is how all the great bull markets have ended. Then the fat lady can sing and we will be, as Samuel Becket would put it, at the "endgame". By the way, I'm only 20% long at the moment. Be good. |
