Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 230.58

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12:42 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8440)	1/11/2004 9:19:49 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 25522

RE: "panic buying" I will listen closely to the AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, LRCX conference calls, and read reports of the ASML conference call very carefully. During last quarter's calls, I heard no indication of "panic." Expected order rates were substantially increased during the mid quarter updates. NVLS had a mid-quarter conference call which increased orders in line with or greater than the industry increases, but, again, no sign of "panic" was reported. Again, a production line requires lithography, lithography has long lead times, and ASML is booked through Q3 2004, some say Q4. Equipment order rates are at historically low % of sales; Fabs are at historically high utilization rates; IC unit demand continues to increase and the increase has been accelerating; equipment vendors have only a moderate ability to ramp output and increase production capacity; Fabs want to maximize profitablity and few or none are out to gain market share by losing money. We need to see tangible numbers that support a peak in 2007 instead of 2005 or we need to lighten up. I think we have some time to look and I think we will see what I am looking for.

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