Jay, I turned down US44c per Kiwi$ only to see the Kiwi zoom all the way to currently about US68c. I had hoped for a little blip down but it carried on moving away from me. So, I missed the boat by about a week. Should have just climbed aboard instead of dickering over the ticket price.
Your recommendation now seems a bit late. Having moved from 39c to nearly 70c, that's a 70% decrease in the US$ against the mighty Kiwi$. I think that exaggerates New Zealand's greatness by quite a lot. Sure, right now, the Kiwi economy is zooming and rock and rolling. But the chickens are coming home to roost. Exporters faced with such a haircut [40c to 70c] will be thinking the number of NZ$ they get is not enough to pay their Kiwi$ costs and justify the capital they've invested.
I'm thinking the yuan is a much better place to flee to, then convert the yuan into real estate in downtown Beijing. If the rembi [I like that nickname] is indeed undervalued [which I doubt], then I might as well buy a bunch of them and buy some underpriced assets which will be involved in China's burgeoning production over the next couple of decades. 12 million people now and maybe 18 million in 2010 means there'll be demand for nice downtown apartments.
An apartment near Beijing central train station and close to CBD is a fraction of the price of such an apartment near Tokyo central station. I think, as with Hong Kong's real estate prices, the gap between Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo and even cheap little Auckland, will close.
With wildly enthusiastic pixelation of megabillions of various currencies, the gap will close by Beijing moving up in nominal value rather than the others going into deflationary mode [yes, there has already been pretty hefty property deflation in Hong Kong and Japan, I know].
How's that for a cool idea?
Mqurice |
