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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who started this subject	1/12/2004 8:43:09 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

A shocker out of USDA this AM, downward revisions on already low stocks. Can you say, "food inflation"? USDA is about as sharp on their prior projections as Beranke will turn out to be on his. The last numbers they put out caused me to exclaim, " How could that be?". One important factor these analysts fail to recognize is how expensive input costs (there's that term, again!)are for fertilizer especially (nat gas based). Corn is generally energy intensive. Farmers, worldwide have cut back on it's use, and this is showing up in grain production output. Meanwhile South American soybean flowers get another hot, dry day: br.weather.com Reuters Jan 12 world wheat, corn stocks highlights - USDA Monday January 12, 8:35 am ET WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department on Monday cut its estimate of 2003/04 global corn ending stocks to 67.49 million tonnes. The global supply of corn will be reduced, in part, because of larger U.S. use of corn by ethanol and sweetener industries, the USDA said in its monthly supply and demand report. The USDA cut its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks by more than 8 million tonnes. Within the U.S. market "projected feed and residual use is up 75 million bushels because Dec. 1 corn stocks implied more use in the September-November quarter than expected," the USDA said. The following are highlights of the new USDA global grain estimates: WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION/STOCKS (mln tonnes) ---2003/04--- ---2002/03--- 2001/02 Jan Dec Jan Dec Actual est est est est WHEAT End Stocks 127.26 127.93 165.44 165.56 201.11 Production 552.66 550.51 566.84 566.84 581.86 OILSEEDS End Stocks 39.77 39.92 42.54 41.95 36.93 Production 344.15 344.93 328.96 328.96 324.87-R COARSE GRAINS End Stocks 100.47 105.94 144.51 143.01 176.29-R Production 883.26 883.78 871.85 869.90 892.42 CORN End Stocks 67.49 74.24 102.30 100.70 129.64-R Production 607.12 610.03 603.46 602.51 599.35

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