Here's an idiot for you
Prechter
<ggg> He was saying for a while that if it moved above 390 he would change his view, that became 400 which became 422 and NOW he's STILL not admitting he was wrong!
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Robert G. Prechter's lieutenants, Steve Hochberg and Peter Kendall, conceded in their most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster that "a close beyond $422 would cause them to re-evaluate the long-standing official Prechter position that gold was just in a peaking bear market rally. (See my Jan. 5 column).
Gold promptly closed above $422, several times. And as I write this (too late on Sunday night), it is above $426 in the Asia-Pacific markets.
Now the Big P himself has pronounced in his big-picture Elliott Wave Theorist, just to hand.
This is Bob Prechter's statement on gold, in its entirety:
"No one wanted gold at the February 2001 low, when it was $255/oz. Since it rose above 360, it has been in demand. The hype in the gold market is tremendous, and even local newspapers talk about it. Gold has been losing momentum for several months. It has reached the low 400s, the upper end of our target range for this wave pattern, as cited in the October 3, 2003, issue of EWT. Commercials, typically savvy players, hold a record short position in gold."
OK, I admit my journalistic antennae are twanging, even allowing for EWT's snail-mail lead times. This simply isn't an adequate response to gold's crossing of the line so specifically drawn -- particularly after so many Prechter retreats. (See my Nov. 24column).
Which still does not, of course, mean that gold might not fall.
Even Prechter's point about commercials, true but not new, is cogently disputed by the gold bugs.
But Mark Hulbert and I have known Bob Prechter for more than 20 years. We believe he's sincere.
Of course, being on the wrong side of a market, like being under torture, is more than the strongest character can stand.
It's not a pretty sight.
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