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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Joe Dancy who wrote (1315)8/14/1997 12:40:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom   of 2754
 
I think the magic question now is "What will FSII announce for fourth quarter and yearly FY-97 earnings sometime in October?" AMAT went wild with a 13 percent quarterly positive earnings surprise. How would FSII react with that kind, or higher, earnings surprise?

Since 2/27/97 (FY-97 earnings estimate at $0.64), there have been 16 earnings revisions for FY-97. With one or two exceptions, the revisions have all been downward. The last revision was made on 8/8/97. This last revision lowered the estimate by 2 cents for the fourth quarter to a value of 7 cents. With that revision, the FY-97 yearly estimate now stands at $0.21.

I think that downward trend during the last 5 1/2 months, more than anything, has really kept the lid on FSII's price. It's hard to make a case for paying more for the stock when every week or two, another downward revision in the earnings estimate is made.

If FSII can pull off a meaningful earnings surprise, I think it will do more for the stock price (in percentage terms) than the positive earnings surprise for AMAT today.

Don W.
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