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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Chip McVickar who started this subject1/12/2004 11:31:54 AM
From: playavermont  Read Replies (4) of 12410
 
10 year treasury rate drop...

Does the 10 year treasury rate of 4.04% scare anybody? We all know that the employment report has much to do with the huge move into treasuries over the last couple days.

The fact that the yield has not had such a huge one day move to the downside (.16) since early September gives me some reason to be wary with regard to stocks. Some say this is a blessing... low rates for a longer period of time will help stocks... but I have my doubts about the immediate impact of lower rates on the stock market in the very near term. The market seems to be a bit overbought in the near term.... and very much over due for a 10% to 15% correction.... something not many believe will happen.

The fact that the 10 year rate is right at its 200 dma (4.04%) is a bit scary. It has not closed below its 200dma since mid July. If it closes below its 200dma could we see another big move into treasuries bringing the yield down much farther? (something NOBODY expects).
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