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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (4872)	1/12/2004 2:45:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) of 110194

I'm probably one of the few people on the planet who thinks next week's rain in Cordoba, Argentina and Rio Grande do Sol, Brazil is more important than the Wizards of Oz Ben and Al. If the price of food is going up because of rain or the lack thereof in Argentina then please tell me WTF you expect the FED to do about it? Seriously. Will hiking interest rates cause rain in Argentina? If so the FED is more powerful than anyone thought. If not why are you bitching about the price of corn or beans as if the FED had anything to do with it? You may not like my "circular" logic but what you just stated in your defense of higher interest rates, is just blatantly illogical. You fail to give any creedence to what rising interest rates would so to this economy. You see rampant inflation when there is none in the price of finished good, and there is none in wages, and there is none in jobs. You see ONLY see the data you want to see and ignore all the rest. That is a fact. I see inflation in commodities. I see infaltion in gold and food and silver. I also see deflation in the areas I mentioned. You Russwinter dismiss those as being unimportant. You Russwinter do not care. Well Unfortunately you Russwinter is not in charge of the FED. You fail to see the overall picture yet you accuse me of circular reasoning. I stated a logical case. That case starts with jobs, and payroll data. It also considers the effect of what would happen IF the FED were to hike given the fragility of this economy. We both agree that it is insane to be in this spot and that the FED was reckless to put us here. At this point that is neither here nor there YET you Russwinter refuse to see it. You have a view of inflation and inflation fighting and want the FED to act in a manner that is logical to you Russwinter. Well that is not going to happen. I see the other side. I know it is reckless for us to be here. If I was in charge at this point, however, I would be just as trapped as Greenspan. No way in H would I hike here. Furthermore 3 inflation hawks reversed course in mid november (per recollection). I posted on that and pointed out the significance. You Russwinter did not care. You insisted that rates would be hiked. That gold over 380 would forec the FEDs hand That gold over 400 would force the FEDs hand That gold over 420 would force the FEDs hand etc etc etc etc Wrong at 380 Wrong at 400 Wrong at 420 Yet you still insist that gold is going to force the FEDs hand. Why? Why is gold going to Force the Feds hand? Tell me in simple terms so that I understand when this event is going to happen and more importantly why it is going to happen. Why are food prices that are more dependent on the rain in Argentina going to force the FEDs hand? Please answer that question as well. If rain is more important than the FED tell me what you expect the FED to do about a shortage of rain in Argentina. Please answer that question as well cause I do not see it. Please give me your view as to what will happen to the US economy if the FED hikes rates. I want to hear it. How many companies dependent on short term financing will go to hell in a handbasket quickly if the FED hikes? Answer that Russwinter. What will happen to housing if the FED gives Russwinter the hike he wants? How many jobs will that cost? What will that do to our economy? Please answer that. Obbviously Russwinter does not give a damn what will happen because the price of gold is going up and the price of food is going up due to lack of rain, and the price of oil is going up. But how many people will rate hikes put out of work? Perhaps they care. Just perhaps there is something more important than your opinion on inflation and the price of gold, oil, and soybeans. That in a nutshell is why you are dead WRONG! Mish

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