SAX not SEX
I couldn't care less about clitons sex life....But the downfall of our economy cannot be blamed totally on Bush.
I cannot defend Bush for some of our economic problems and some of his foreign policy decisions.But he's not riding the wave created by prior administrations.
Cliton lucked out there.
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Tech Spending Is on a Roll
By James Maguire
NewsFactor Network
December 5, 2003 11:30AM
Tech spending will increase significantly, the server market will see increasing commoditization, and broadband technology will play a leading role in 2004, according to research firm IDC's annual forecast of the I.T. year ahead. The wide-ranging report makes predictions involving many areas of technology, including the SCO-IBM lawsuit, RFID technology and the I.T. job market.
In contrast to recent years, the outlook for I.T. spending is bullish in 2004, IDC said. The research firm earlier had forecast an increase of 4.9 percent. Based on more recent indicators, IDC now predicts that I.T. budgets will increase by 6-8 percent -- or more.
Tech Spending
The improving picture for the overall U.S. economy -- just as CIOs are setting 2004 budgets -- led IDC to increase its I.T. spending prediction. Additionally, corporate profits are improving, creating still more upward pressure.
"If the economy improves, companies will invest in I.T., and there's usually a three to six month lag time," IDC analyst John Gantz told NewsFactor.
"The I.T. industry is much more tethered to the economy than it was ten years ago," he said, noting that the tech industry used to be driven by product cycles but is now driven by a host of domestic and international factors.
Also spurring technology spending is the need for corporate compliance with recent legislation, the firm says. Legislation like the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, as well as Sarbanes-Oxley, will force enterprises to invest in more data-tracking and storage systems.
IDC also forecasts that increasing return on enterprise investment and heightened demand for technology products will generate larger I.T. budgets.
Global Hot Spots
Technology spending will increase on a global basis, IDC forecasts.
Hot spots include Eastern Europe, which will benefit from the inclusion of 10 new nations into the European Union, and China, where I.T. spending will grow to US$30 billion.
Chinese I.T. spending will grow four times faster than the average international rate, IDC predicts.
Still Wary
The increase in spending does not mean that companies will begin a host of new initiatives, IDC said. Rather, many enterprises will focus on completing already-scheduled projects.
Moreover, corporate budget setters remain cautious, and unforeseen bad economic news could deflate these planned spending increases.
"In terms of the 6 to 8 percent growth, I'd love to see it, but there's a possibility that we won't see it because of something unforeseen, like a SARS epidemic or some huge clash," Gantz said. "If the dollar falls as much next year as it did this year, that may be a problem, because it affects the rest of the world's exports to the U.S."
I.T. Jobs
Technology spending increases will not create a huge demand for U.S. I.T. workers, IDC said.
The trend toward foreign outsourcing will continue to pick up steam in 2004, with non-U.S. tech companies reaping more than $16 billion, double 2003's revenues. This 2003 outsourcing revenue figure will triple by 2007, IDC predicts.
However, I.T. job creation in the U.S. will partially mitigate outsourcing's negative effect on the domestic job market, IDC analyst Ned May told NewsFactor.
"If your starting year is 2003 instead of 2000, the outlook is good, but we're not going to see replacements of jobs lost in '01 and '02 and the first half of this year."
Commoditization Trend
Continuing a trend that has emerged in the last few years, RISC-based servers will lose market share to x86 servers running Linux or Windows. The x86 that run these servers have become commoditized and, therefore, less expensive. Simultaneously, these processors have become faster and more efficient.
"2004 is the year that the vendors have to not only accommodate x86 servers, but they have to center their future around it," Gantz said. Next year will be the first that x86 servers will generate more sales revenue than RISC-based servers, he said. "That's a big deal."
Riding the crest of the commoditization wave is Linux, which IDC forecasts will power 10 percent of the servers shipped in the U.S. in 2004. As RISC servers end their life cycle, they may be replaced by x86 servers, Gantz said. In 2004, "we think there's a one-time window for Linux on Intel to gain momentum," he said.
SCO-IBM Battle
IBM will indemnify its Linux clients against SCO's legal claims in 2004, IDC predicts.
"Hewlett-Packard has said that they will," Gantz noted. "IBM has such an investment in Linux -- therefore its customers have an investment in Linux -- that [IBM] is going to be under pressure to do what HP did." |
