Mistake in article(see bold).....
China to remain small fish in big IC pond
By Mark LaPedus
Silicon Strategies
01/13/2004, 10:50 AM ET
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif.--Contrary to popular belief, China's chip makers will remain a small factor in the worldwide IC market and will not impact the supply/demand picture in the near term, according to an analyst at the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here today (January 13, 2004).
Some analysts and executives, including Morris Chang, chairman of silicon foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC), believe that China will impact the supply/demand scenario in ICs and will cause another downturn in 2005 (see September 15 story).
Others disagree. Some believe that China's chip makers will remain a small fish in the big semiconductor pond. On the other hand, China itself is the world's fastest growing chip market in terms of overall demand.
In total, China's domestic chip production is growing at a compound annual growth rate of 20-to-30 a year, said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. But China is also coming from a small base; in 2003, the nation's IC vendors produced $1.2 billion worth of chips.
"That's still a small percentage of the overall IC market," he said at ISS. The semiconductor industry is expected to jump 27 percent this year, from $166.4 billion in 2003, to $210.5 billion in 2004, according to IC Insights.
By 2005, China's chip industry is projected to reach $4.18 billion--or only 2.5 percent of the total IC market, according to IC Insights. In comparison, the worldwide IC industry is supposed to hit $166.9 billion by 2005, according to the research firm.
By 2010, the nation's IC industry is expected to reach $15.35 billion--or 5.7 percent of the total IC market, the firm said. In comparison, the worldwide IC industry is supposed to hit $270 billion by 2005, according to the research firm.
This is not to say that China's chip makers will be insignificant. In fact, China is projected to have two $1 billion chip makers by 2005--both of which are silicon foundry providers. Indeed, China's foundry hopefuls are shaking up the landscape (see December 22, 2003 story).
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) is projected to grow from $350 million in terms of worldwide sales for 2003, to $1.325 billion in 2005, according to IC Insights. And Grace Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is projected to grow from $125 million in 2003 to $1.020 billion by 2005.
The next largest Chinese chip maker is Hua Hong NEC, which is expected to grow from $210 million in 2003, to $715 million by 2005. |
