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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (4924)1/13/2004 12:13:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
Greenspasm is speaking much clearer English to the Germans
much more clear language and word choices than to US Congress
he is aware of the current account (trade gap) imbalance
he is aware of the risk of a dollar crisis if other nations fail to generate their own domestic demand

he fails to acknowlege the Asian outsourced job leakage
he overly relies on productivity, exactly what he distorts
he leans too hard on his own erroneous pillar

I think he fails to comprehend technology's effect on commerce
he prefers to emphasize gains in productivity from tech advances
sure a tech device works more, but that advantage is shared
that device is available to our foreign rivals who have other significant advantages from which to apply leverage, such as cheaper labor

he totally fails to perceive the down sides
- prices decline progressively and hurt profitability
- foreigners offer cheap capital and tech highways to take away business

he still regards financial derivatives as beneficial
he believes they averted a banking collapse, without realizing that the risk has remained with us inside the banking system
he fails to understand that he has helped risk a systemic failure, in order to prevent isolated failures
he points to tight yield spreads, which are the object of his own monetized interventions

he denies a US real estate bubble
like with Uncle Charlie, too many denials of his alcoholism, too many questions even, demonstrate the validity of his real alcoholism

I believe he is realizing slowly the errors of his legacy
BUT CANNOT ADMIT IT, SINCE HE IS TOO PROUD
he still has too many credible denials which are accepted as true

I am impressed that he abhors protectionism
two major final points are worth stressing
1. no US economic recovery has taken place during a US$ decline
2. outsized federal and trade deficits lead to US$ crisis
/ jim
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