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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 217.15-2.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: jlallen who wrote (159808)1/13/2004 1:03:11 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
I don't think offshoring should add to GDP. I think it is being added erroneously, when a dept which produces something is half US/half India or china. Most of these offshore depts that I have seen, have maybe one or two people in the US and then fifty times that offshore. My feeling is that GDP is taking the entire output of this mixed group, and calling it US GDP.

I don't know for sure, it is just a theory. Stephen Roach has said that US productivity numbers are so high because we have offshored all the labor intensive positions. I think that is true, at which point the US is a country of managers, and not exactly the "hyper productive" society that economists try to claim. (at least the economists that support this economy as robust anyway)

I think it is quite clear that we don't *really* have 8% GDP. No jobs and bad retail in an 8% GDP environment make no sense. The white house is trying to use the household employment survey now to explain away the no jobs, but that says nothing about the sluggish retail environment. I think it makes more sense that the jobs numbers are RIGHT, and GDP is wrong.

This is a very bad sign. SAP is manufacturing infrastructure. SAP has other problems but in a really robust recovery, they'd be going like gangbusters.
UPDATE - SAP sales disappoint hopes of strong recovery
biz.yahoo.com
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