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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO

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To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (11296)	1/13/2004 4:08:11 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) of 11568

<BofA upgrade and short-squeeze cited> Neither of those are good reasons to buy a stock, and in this case I think that they are good reasons to short it because nothing new fundamentally is behind the buying. <put a floor on the stock at $13> Just because some guy says the floor is $13, the market suddenly believes it? Why didn't the market think the floor was at 13 yesterday or last month? The reason is because the fundamentals for TOY stink and the market was valuing it where it belongs before this one guy made his comments. Once again, nothing new came out that would lead one to believe (rationally) that the stock is worth $1.26 more today than yesterday. I would think differently if news came out of the company that changed the fundamental outlook. That isn't the case! So again, no big revelation. Just one guy pumping up the stock. You have to short on up ticks, and I think that TOY will come crashing down as fast as it went up. Try to short the stock that day and let me know how you made out. Don't forget that a lot of analysts are sour on TOY and could just as easily come out with negative comments that counter the BofA comments.

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