I guess I have to be the voice of reality in Alice in Wonderland, as the financial media sure doesn't look at the footnotes. The trade deficit largely dropped because "oil imports were down", and "they sold some jets". Great on the last one, but oil imports being down just points further to my bottleneck theory. And todays EIA just confirms this all the more. Oil imports were down to 9.2m last week and averaged only 9.5m for the prior four weeks. Guess what, Dec overall trade imports may be down too, does that mean that the trade deficit is licked because they can't get enough oil into the country? Meanwhile petroleum inventories drop to 264 million barrels, a quarter century low. I suppose they will spin this as "just in time inventory"?
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending January 9, 2004
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged less than 15.1 million barrels per day during the week ending January 9, down 330,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The vast majority of the decline was seen on the Gulf Coast (PADD III), where crude oil inputs averaged about 7.1 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly average since the week ending March 21, 2003.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.2 million barrels per day last week, down 545,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with an increase in the Gulf Coast (PADD III) more than offset by declines in every other region, particularly the West Coast (PADD V). Crude oil imports on the West Coast averaged just 481,000 barrels per day, the lowest weekly average since February 28, 2003. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 285,000 barrels per day last week, down 19,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) decreased, averaging 604,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.0 million barrels last week. At 264.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 33.7 million barrels less than the 5-year average for this time of year and the lowest since the fall of 1975. Distillate fuel inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels, with increases seen in both low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel and high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate fuel. At 138.3 million barrels, distillate fuel inventories are 5.8 million barrels above the 5-year average for this time of year. Motor gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, and are about 0.8 million barrels above the 5-year average. T
Total commercial petroleum inventories are 51.4 million barrels less than the 5-year average. Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 19.8 million barrels per day, or 1.0 percent less than the same period last year. Motor gasoline demand over the last four weeks has averaged over 8.7 million barrels per day, or 0.4 percent below the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand is down 8.8 percent, while kerosene-type jet fuel demand is down 7.0 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year. |
