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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG

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To: ~digs who wrote (1249)1/14/2004 10:33:40 PM
From: Wade  Read Replies (1) of 48092
 
If you pull out SP-500 and USD 2-year charts, you will notice that the market were down when USD went down during 02, however, it went up during 03 and 04, while USD kept on sliding. It would be rather difficult to correlate market direction with USD when there are too many intervention forces from foreign central banks and US Fed.

The gold stock market is not ripe for major commitment with margin at this point. I will only use it for the short term trades when the trend becomes clear. I don't see clear direction at this moment. Thanks for your advice.

I like your USD and POG charts very much. I agree with you that both USD and POG are overly extended. I also "finally' agreed that this is a "big bump".<VBG> However, I am not ready to believe that this is a major one. May be only a few percentage changes.

I saw the upward POG trend line intercepts the horizontal resistant line at ~$390, which is probably what you meant the pull back target. The $390 is the strongest support. However, I would like to see if POG can break below $410 and $400 first. Both of these lines have become the most recent supports which are not the strongest, but I think they are good places to stop further dropping if the USD slide is only a "fake" move. Of course, POG will take a big dive if the economy recovery is for real instead of a bubble. It is apparent that the gold community doesn't believe that so far. There is no particular reason to panic or bearish about, imho. I will treat this USD "big bump" as normal technical rebound within a big down trend, until it is proven otherwise.

Sincerely,

Wade
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