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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (5151)1/15/2004 5:23:16 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Philly Fed
From Brian Reynolds

Strong headline, soft under the surface

The Philadelphia Fed index rose from 30.3 (revised from 32.1) to 38.8 in January, putting it well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus which was looking for a 30.0 read. This number comes after another positive surprise in this morning's Empire State index, and is the highest reading since December 1993, and the second highest since January 1984.
Under the surface, though, this number is not as robust as the headline would imply. Prices paid rose from 30.9 to 35.3. New Orders declined from 37.9 to 36.5. Shipments fell from 39.6 to 33.1, while employment fell from 19.4 to 17.5.

So the picture from this report is of a strong, but moderating economy. The 10-year Treasury, which was up an eighth of a point in front of the number (and which was flirting with 3-month lows in yield) lost those gains on the release of the headline, but then stopped falling when traders got a look at the detail.
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