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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (5327)	1/16/2004 8:24:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Deflation Here We Come prudentbear.com Over the last few days Central bankers have been making statements to firm the dollar. There are also signs that they are taking less visible, coordinated action. While this action may provide short-term stability - by providing supply-side stimulus to inflate financial assets - in total these actions are actually deflationary. The move to reduce the supply of guaranteed long-dated debt, which began with the withdrawal of 30-year notes, means that any debt retired must be replaced with debt at the shorter end of the yield curve. Of course, this action reduces the government's cost of capital, at least in today's environment. But in our view, this move also was made to encourage the issuance of mortgage-backed securities. Regardless of the reason, this shortening process is ongoing and it represents a major deflationary exposure in a way that investors may not have noticed. ... Yes, the government's debt becomes more serviceable as rates move lower. However, every short-term piece of paper printed makes it more a difficult policy questions of when to raise interest rates. Thus, interest rate policy locks itself into an environment of zero percent return (and chronic negative real return) until liquidity becomes unavailable. Currently, an inflationary bias is also reflected in the weakening dollar and rising gold prices. But it is the long term interest rate that provides clues as to whether or not we will experience a deflationary depression, stagflation (deflation-inflation), or hyperinflation. A deflationary depression would be the worst scenario possible.

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