4 at the Top; 3 Days to Go
Race in Iowa Tightens For Democratic Rivals
By Jim VandeHei and John F. Harris
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, January 17, 2004; Page A01
DES MOINES, Jan. 16 -- The four Democratic presidential candidates with hopes of winning in Iowa put aside personal attacks Friday and focused on what all consider the two keys to victory: organizing supporters and winning over undecided Iowans doing last-minute shopping for the best candidate to defeat President Bush.
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.), long considered the front-runners here, pulled two negative television ads that strategists said may have helped power the surprise surges of two rivals. "We don't want Howard Dean to drag us into a slugfest for the remainder of the campaign," said Steve Murphy, Gephardt's campaign manager.
Sens. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and John Edwards (N.C.) have largely avoided attacking their rivals, and have steadily risen in private and public polls. This is now a four-candidate, too-close-to-call race with three days to go.
The four candidates dashed across the state to sell their campaign styles and implement their plans for winning Monday night's caucuses. The candidate who closes the most deals with undecided voters this weekend and most successfully pulls diehard backers to the caucuses will win, strategists from several campaigns say.
Iowa Democrats are predicting near-record turnout, perhaps 125,000 Democrats, or twice as many who voted in 2000. With the candidates spending record-setting amounts on television ads and get-out-the-vote efforts, it is not clear who stands to benefit most from the new faces, though the Des Moines Register noted Friday morning that registration in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, is up 300 percent over the past six months compared with four years ago. This could be good news for Dean, a favorite of college-age students, who has brought about 3,500 out-of-state volunteers to Iowa to get those voters to the polls.
But strategists from several campaigns said Dean is losing support by the day, based on daily tracking polls. Dean on Friday called it a four-way tie in a "very fluid race," but said he believes his organization will carry him over the top Monday night.
"This is all down to the last 72 hours," Dean told reporters as his bus rolled through central Iowa. "This is all about who gets their voters out."
Dean acknowledged he has been bruised by opponents' criticism and sharper media scrutiny after he took an early lead here. He said that he sometimes gets upset, but that he has developed "a thicker skin" and regards recent rough going as "part of the process" through which every serious candidate goes. He recalled that Gary Hart, a former presidential candidate, had warned him early in his bid that "there's no such thing as a wimp who gets to be president."
Dean usually wears a tie and shirt with the sleeves rolled up, but he softened his appearance a bit as he canvassed a half-dozen small towns with Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) by his side. Aides insisted there was no calculation in the new look, and that the candidate was merely cold.
Then, in his news conference, Dean said Harkin had urged him to put on a sweater, so Dean borrowed one from a campaign aide. "When in Iowa, do as Iowans do," Dean said.
Even if Dean does not win, he still has the money and grass-roots support to make a stand in New Hampshire Jan. 27 and in seven other primaries Feb. 3.
The stakes are much higher for Gephardt, whose national political career could come to an abrupt end with a loss Monday night. Running low on money and far behind in New Hampshire, Gephardt needs the momentum from Iowa to carry his campaign forward, his aides said.
"I've always known this would be a close competition, a dead-heat-type race, but I believe we're going to win," Gephardt told supporters in Fort Dodge.
Gephardt's agenda and strategy are tailored to the state's union households. His health care plan, opposition to free trade and focus on jobs are all designed to inspire union workers and their families to back him. Rival campaigns expect Gephardt to pull at least 30,000 union voters to the caucuses, and perhaps many more because the Teamsters, the machinists and various industrial unions are dispatching members to rap on doors and urge Iowans to vote. Gephardt has held steady in the polls because his union backers are extraordinarily loyal and highly unlikely to skip a caucus vote, longtime Iowa political observers say. |
