Mish, I think you're missing the point here a little.
<<Well now, 1 year into the rally and missing it all he says it is only half way.>>
Richard Russell didn't say that. What he said was that Lowry's statistics say that historically, when this buying/selling cross occurs, it usually happens half the way through a rally.
Now, Russell says he's looked at Lowry's daily stats since the 60's. That's maybe 40 years worth of looking. He says they're good. We probably all remember Paul Desmond's stuff that Paul Shread turned us on to. That's Lowry's work, too, and it was proven time and again to be correct. So, when you're faced with something like that... something that has statistical backing and comes from a source you trust... why wouldn't you take it seriously? I would argue that he'd be an idiot to ignore it. Doesn't mean it's right, of course, but isn't the market all about finding the best "odds" via good setups and statistical benchmarks? If you've got one that you trust that's telling you something that has worked through bull and bear market alike, wouldn't YOU take it into account?
In other words, he's missed the first 1500 points of the Dow rally, but he's willing to admit there may be another 1500 points. Makes sense to me.
the freep |
