Lead split 4 ways as Iowa race nears end
By Susan Page, Jill Lawrence and Andrea Stone, USA TODAY
DES MOINES — Howard Dean, who went from obscurity to front-runner in the Democratic presidential race, has seen his support slide for the opening Iowa caucuses as an unusually muddled and negative campaign here heads into its final weekend.
Not since the caucuses began to count presidential preferences in 1972 has the race been so fluid at this late stage. A daily poll by Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby released on Thursday put four candidates in a statistical tie: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry at 22%, Dean and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt at 21%, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 17%, all within the survey's margin of error of +/— 4.5 percentage points.
Dean's support dropped 7 percentage points in three days.
Kerry, whose support rose 5 points in that time, drew sizable crowds as he crossed the state by helicopter. "You want to decide with a gut check what is the character" of the candidates, he told a standing-room-only town hall-style meeting in Webster City on Thursday night.
But Dean and Gephardt command the strongest statewide organizations. That's critical for the caucuses, which require voters to go to meetings Monday night and be prepared to stay for hours of debate and maneuvering.
"Almost anything could happen," state Democratic chair Gordon Fischer says. The prospect of record turnout among young voters and those who haven't participated before is "a big X-factor," he says.
At stake are convention delegates, bragging rights and publicity. Those who do well are likely to gain momentum and contributions for the contests that follow in New Hampshire on Jan. 27 and seven other states on Feb. 3. But poor showings by Gephardt, who has staked his claim here, or Kerry, who is fading in New Hampshire, could end their candidacies.
Never before have candidates attacked one another so directly in the closing days before the caucuses:
• Gephardt unveiled a 30-second TV ad Thursday that attacks Dean's past statements on Medicare and Social Security. "How much do you really know about Howard Dean?" the announcer asks.
• Dean is on the air with a 60-second ad that criticizes Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards for voting for the congressional resolution authorizing the war in Iraq. "I opposed the war in Iraq," Dean says in the ad.
• Kerry has distributed fliers that attack Dean and Gephardt for advocating repeal of all of President Bush's tax cuts, including those that benefit the middle class. The Gephardt camp responded with an attack on Kerry's position on the farm bill and ethanol.
Edwards, presenting himself as a positive alternative, stayed largely above the fray. "People are sick of this negative politics," he said Thursday.
Meanwhile, former Illinois senator Carol Moseley Braun dropped out of the contest and endorsed Dean in a joint appearance in Carroll, Iowa. She has had negligible support but could offer Dean additional credibility with African-American voters. |
