Iowa caucuses: 'No one is ahead'
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
FORT DODGE, Iowa — Somebody has to win the Iowa caucuses on Monday, but who? With four candidates in a statistical tie, it all comes down to turning out voters and pinning down people like Mary Noffke.
"I'm just to the point where it's time to decide," says Noffke, 57, a farmer from Webster City. She attended a pancake breakfast here Thursday for Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont. "Dean's probably going to be the man. Right now I think I'm just about committed."
Even so, like others at the breakfast, Noffke planned to check out a nearby appearance later in the day by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Just in case. The refrain in Iowa three days before caucus is "anything could happen."
Major developments of the past few days include leader Dean falling back to the pack, Kerry surging, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt holding relatively steady and Edwards moving up to be competitive.
"No one is ahead. It's all within the margin of error," says Ed Reilly, who is polling for Gephardt.
Dennis Goldford, a political science professor observing his fifth caucus season, says he's never seen this level of uncertainty. "Democrats are certainly shopping for someone who can take on (President) Bush and the Republicans," he says
"No one is ahead. It's all within the margin of error," says Ed Reilly, who is polling for Gephardt.
Dennis Goldford, a political science professor observing his fifth caucus season, says he's never seen this level of uncertainty. "Democrats are certainly shopping for someone who can take on (President) Bush and the Republicans," he says
The new contours and energy of the race are reflected in the crowds. Kerry and Edwards are attracting 400 and more at some events. Dean's are smaller. Even a raucous rally with actor Martin Sheen, director Rob Reiner, Sen. Tom Harkin and a campaign bus driving right into the room drew only about 200 people.
Kerry and Edwards are benefiting from second thoughts about Dean, arising from his own testiness and attacks from other candidates. Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager and a veteran of several caucus campaigns, says Dean is not losing ground. "The last couple of days we've held it," he says. He added that "the tracking polls have always been wrong in the last week" before caucus.
Strategists for all the candidates agree the main ingredient for victory at this point is organization, at the most basic level, simply getting your supporters to their neighborhood caucuses at schools, libraries and firehouses. Gephardt and Dean, bolstered by labor, have the most extensive organizations.
The big question hanging over Kerry and Edwards is whether they have the organizations in place to take advantage of their surges. There are nearly 2,000 precinct caucuses. If a candidate's supporters don't amount to at least 15% of those present at each one, they have to choose another candidate or go home.
Kerry, with his heroic Vietnam War record, started out the presumed front-runner but then fell way behind Dean here and in New Hampshire. His resurgence has given former supporters new confidence in him.
Joan Stein, 55, a homemaker from Webster City, said she and her husband were longtime Kerry supporters but started to look at Edwards when his campaign tanked. They are now back in Kerry's fold, due to what she calls his "amazing" surge. "Once we saw him move up in the polls, it sort of solidified it," she says.
Roger Severson, 57, owner of a Des Moines direct mail company, says he was for Kerry but abandoned him earlier this year when his campaign fell into turmoil and lost momentum. "In the last two weeks, he's come on strong. He reconvinced me," Severson says, a Vietnam veteran.
Roger Severson, 57, owner of a Des Moines direct mail company, says he was for Kerry but abandoned him earlier this year when his campaign fell into turmoil and lost momentum. "In the last two weeks, he's come on strong. He reconvinced me," Severson says, a Vietnam veteran.
Virginia Dress is not so sure. "I'm having a lot of indecision," Dress, 43, a patent agent from Clive, said at a Kerry town meeting this week. She said she is leaning toward Edwards because he seems "very upbeat and positive." But she came to hear Kerry's long term plans for the economy and foreign policy and said she would keep an open mind.
Virginia Dress is not so sure. "I'm having a lot of indecision," Dress, 43, a patent agent from Clive, said at a Kerry town meeting this week. She said she is leaning toward Edwards because he seems "very upbeat and positive." And he has charisma." But she came to hear Kerry's long term plans for the economy and foreign policy and said she would keep an open mind.
Dean's stock with some voters fell after days of taking hits from his rivals and in the media over his record and past comments on the caucuses and foreign policy. But some of his wounds were self-inflicted, including irritable encounters with voters and a Sunday night debate performance that worried even some supporters.
The break in Dean's momentum was apparent in comments from prospective caucus-goers at events for Dean, Kerry and Edwards this week.
Alan Pearlman took his lunch break Thursday at a downtown Des Moines rally for Edwards. "I'm definitely for Edwards," says Pearlman, 54, executive director of Temple B'nai Jeshurun. How long has he been for Edwards? "Three or four days."
Pearlman started with Kerry, but then "he flip-flopped on the war" in Iraq. He then moved to Dean, but "he needs to think more before he speaks." He seems flippant and a little arrogant."
Dan Doggett, 47, who was at the Dean breakfast here, said Dean's frankness and anti-war stance are keeping him with Dean despite a debate performance Sunday that was not "a good show. It seemed like defense. It concerned me that night, but I still think the momentum's in his direction."
Dean's message, of standing up to President Bush and taking back America from special interests, doesn't appeal to all voters. Mary Van Zants, 61, a foundation director, wasn't impressed after listening to Dean rail against the establishment Monday in Pella. "You hear that every election year," she said. "You run into trouble if you don't have some friends in Washington."
But others who share Dean's views are drawn to his passion. Harkin said here Thursday that Dean is "the candidate I've been looking for all my adult life."
Dan Doggett, 47, who was at the Dean breakfast here, said Dean's frankness and anti-war stance are keeping him with Dean despite a debate performance Sunday that was not "a good show. It seemed like defense. It concerned me that night, but I still think the momentum's in his direction."
Dean's message, of standing up to President Bush and taking back America from special interests, doesn't appeal to all voters. Mary Van Zants, 61, a foundation director, wasn't impressed after listening to Dean rail against the establishment Monday in Pella. "You hear that every election year," she said. "You run into trouble if you don't have some friends in Washington."
But others who share Dean's views are drawn to his passion. Harkin said here Thursday that Dean is "the candidate I've been looking for all my adult life."
Norma Anders, 64, who owns a painting business with her husband in Fort Dodge, watched the Dean/Sheen rally on C-SPAN. and found it thrilling. "He's got an enthusiasm," she says. "I think it's catching. If he excites people, I'll vote for him." That's an if. He's at the top of her list of three possibilities: Dean, Kerry and retired general Wesley Clark, who is not competing here.
Contributing: Andrea Stone in Webster City, Susan Page in Des Moines |
