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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (6075)8/14/1997 11:14:00 AM
From: J.T.   of 50167
 
AQ, Speaking of floor traders I talked to a friend of mine who works down at the CBOT to get his feel in the bond pits and inflation. You may or may not be surprised by what I found out. First, he lost his voice and could barely speak. He said it has been crazy as hell in last eight to ten trading days since right before and after NAPM #'s. I asked him where we go from here without sharing my biases. He said bonds go higher and yields lower btw now and year end. He said inflation just isn't there and unless there is something else out there, we trade in narrow band btw yield of 6.4% and 6.7% long bond. He said he believes the band will be broken at lower yield band later this year. I asked him support and resistance levels and he said roughly 113.16 and 112 for right now. He said there is huge support at 112 and major buying came in at that level yesterday morning when we had bond market reversal. I asked him if Core CPI rate would come in at .03 or higher would we take out support? He said "no", major institutional buying at that level. I ask, what would it take to take out 112 and he said its not gona happen. I asked about lower $, Bundesbank , EC members raising rates... literally anything to take out 112 and he was still somewhat firm but hedged by saying if we take out 112 there is big trouble and it hasn't reared its ugly head yet. I guess you get the moral ofe the story: We take out 112 and stocks will continue to follow lower. If not, more backing and filling. Regards. JT
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