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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 177.78-2.2%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (38840)1/18/2004 2:57:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 197157
 
Jim, here is my guess for how many minutes would be used at different price levels. Message 17994405

I don't believe the existing constellation can do much more than prove demand for a second constellation. Thermo might be able to get their money back and make a bit, but the remaining life in the constellation and the number of handsets available and lead times to produce swanky new handsets means it's all a day late and a dollar short.

The big thing to be done is prove demand so that investors will back another constellation using new, improved, latest-design CDMA handset technology. Because prices per minute are still so high, we are a long way from proving that there is enough demand for a new constellation.

One proof that minute prices are too high is that handset prices are so low. There's no clamouring demand to get hold of a handset so that cheap minutes with 100% coverage from a vehicle can be used. There are only something like 100,000 subscribers [at last report]. That's pathetic after 4 years of marketing.

At present, QUALCOMM stands to make nothing much at all from Globalstar. It will only be if a new constellation is built, with great new handsets, with really cheap minutes [like 5c a minute] that there'll be $$billions paid by subscribers.

The existing constellation is only a marketing experiment. Thermo needs to understand that, and not just try to squeeze a bit of profit at high prices until the constellation dies.

Mqurice
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