The latest polls we will get. How perceptions have changed! I think the Iowa voters have been paying attention to the Media, and going from Dean to their number two pick. First the "Iowa," then the "Zogby"
New DM Register Iowa Poll Has Kerry in Front, 23%, Edwards in 2nd, 24%, Dean in 3rd, 19% Gebhardt in 4th, 18%
CHARTS HERE: miva.dmregister.com
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Zogby
Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18; Close Battles Fought Among Most Sub-Groups; In Newest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry continues to hold a statistically insignificant advantage over Vermont Governor Howard Dean, with Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt and North Carolina Senator John Edwards nipping at their heels, according to the new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll.
On the eve of Monday's caucus, it remains a tight four-way race. All other contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination have 3 points or less in Iowa.
Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry continues to poll strong. Remember, he started with just 14% a week ago. Dean seems to have bottomed out and moved almost back to where he was. His support among the youngest voters and self-identified liberals appears to be solid. Gephardt rebounded with a good day of polling and he remains the favorite among the oldest voters. And Edwards had another good day.
"There are fewer doubts about Dean's ability to defeat Bush, a factor that has hurt him much of this week. Supporters for each of the top four are now equally strong - at about two in three.
"A reminder to all Iowa observers: this is a caucus not a primary. The rules of engagement and the commitment of time are far different. Iowans who show up take this responsibility very seriously and they understand that this is a dynamic process that occurs after discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus- building. After all, they are neighbors. Thus anything can happen.
"There are limits to pre-caucus polls. But can anyone doubt that this race has tightened among four serious challengers? The tracking poll has captured statistically what conventional wisdom has observed. If Dean's minions of young volunteers do their job, he can indeed win this process. If Gephardt's legendary and tested labor machine can bring out its supporters, then he will have done it again in Iowa. If voters respond to a 'refreshing' new face or "the experienced Senator' who have surged in later days, then either Edwards or Kerry will rule the evening's events.
"Will Dean's photo op with former President Carter persuade doubters? Will Gephardt's appeal on trade and health care turn the debates? Will Kerry's experience, war heroism, and late surge be enough? Will Edwards' avoidance of negatives be the right formula?
"Or all four can emerge with bragging rights. The polls can only take us up to the moment the caucuses begin. That even includes the entrance polls. But one thing is certain: the campaign for the Democratic nomination is already exciting and unpredictable. We will publish our last Iowa tracks on Monday morning."
CHARTS AT: zogby.com |
