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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (5472)1/19/2004 11:09:24 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
The bogus CPI numbers (EXCLUDING food and energy) was up 1.9% in that period

i guess you mean there is inflation in any case. but consider: the core PCE deflator which the Fed looks at rose only 0.8% YoY--THE SMALLEST INCREASE IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY of the data series going back to 1959.

also, remember you are in very good company in forecasting higher rates--EVERYBODY AGREES WITH YOU. IT IS THE MOST POPULAR OPINION IN ALL OF FINANCE. 48 out of 50 economists surveyed by the WSJ expect it. all the geniuses at FNM expect it. Bill Gross expects it. all card-carrying bears expect it as do all card-carrying bulls. all the geniuses on Barron's Roundtable. probably the UST bears to bulls ratio is even greater than the SPX bulls to bears ratio. bond bearishness is the most crowded trade on the planet.
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