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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated

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To: Crossy who wrote (656)1/19/2004 11:42:42 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) of 2955
 
Mobile Wireless Technology Flips

CROSSY,

<< the strategic inferences I draw from carrier flip and upgrade path let me infer that it looks like GSM/3G being the cheaper way to implement 2.5G services now. ... Is this assumption correct ? >>

I don't necessarily infer that a TDMA flip to GSM/EDGE (and eventually to 3GSM WCDMA) is "cheaper", than a flip to CDMA2000 1xRTT (and eventually to 1xEV-DV).

What I do infer is that carriers making the decision concluded that in each of their particular cases, that long term the GSM migration path was the most cost effective and would provide the best ROI over the long haul.

Originally I assumed that a CDMA overlay of a TDMA network would cost less than a GSM overlay since both CDMA and TDMA use an ANSI-41 core network. That may not be the case however. Apparently GSM cell placement more closely matches up with TDMA cell placement and lends itself better to co-siting and consequently allows more optimal reuse of TDMA site equipment (antenna/feeder, power supply, transmission lines, etc.), resulting in some measurable cost savings.

My guess is that implementing a GSM/EDGE overlay probably costs roughly the same as implementing a CDMA2000 overlay when upgrades to the CN, installation of the IP backbone, and all, are considered.

<< What are the parameters on this equation ? What are the typical buildout costs for a TDMA carrier moving to CDMA or GSM ??? >>

Not a lot has been detailed on that. AT&T Wireless, with a subscriber base of 22 million spent $15 to $18 per covered POP (~$3 Billion to date) to cover 214 million POPS from scratch with GSM/EDGE. My recall is that they estimate an additional $6 to $10 per covered POP to migrate from GSM/EDGE to 3GSM WCDMA.

Best,

- Eric -
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