Hi KastelCo,
I know that you're just funnin' around, but that's exactly what worries the Democratic party leadership.
The "plan", if that's what we should call it, was to offer up a sacrificial lamb in this year's elections (allowing the Republicans to "win"). Howard Dean wears the lamb label well, being that he is not and was not a mainstream Democrat. The Democrats would save their big guns for 2008, which would mean the Republicans wouldn't have the power of incumbency on their side in 4 years.
But, now the apple cart is upset. If Kerry wins the nomination, in theory anyway, he just might prove popular enough to defeat Bush in November. The same thing could be said of Edwards, who finished second in the Iowa caucus. If the Democrats win in 2004, then their party would be the incumbents in 2008, and the big guns would have to wait until 2012 to run for the Presidency, presuming the Democrats wouldn't "one term" their own party representative holding the highest elected office in the world.
In order for Bush to win in November, he has to either a: take a significantly high percentage of new voters (mostly younger people who have come of age and historically vote Democratic) or b: win a high percentage of the southern Democrat states. While neither task is easy, both are doable from the Bush campaign perspective.
Were Edwards to win the Democratic nomination, Bush would most certainly lose the Democratic states in the southern USA, but could easily win the newer voters, who currently support Dean and are quite disappointed with the other Democratic choices who all are very Liberal in their politics or are at least significantly leaning to the Left.
Kerry supposedly cannot win the Democratic south without a strong southern running mate, much like the left-leaning Clinton had Al Gore to balance the ticket and secure the southern states. Kerry's choices for a southern running mate that might fit the bill are quite slim.
And, Bush's popularity numbers are gaining strength as the economy improves. At the moment, it does indeed look like "4 more years", but time will tell. A lot can happen between now and November.
As a side note, it appears that Dean will win the New Hampshire primary (if he doesn't, his campaign is dead). But Edwards appears a cinch to win the South Carolina primary. The Democrats are finding themselves pinched between competing factions within their own party. Only one candidate can emerge as the winner, and the backers of the other candidates will be disillusioned. Not all will vote for the Democratic candidate. They may not vote for Bush either, but if the Democrats split their vote, then surely Bush will win.
KJC
PS - Again, Florida is the key state. |
