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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: yard_man who wrote (5580)1/20/2004 2:57:57 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
The consensus on energy is now where I was six-twelve months ago. It's a "tell me something I don't already know" situation. Every monkey in the market now knows the energy story. Most of the E&P I've owned are up an average 50% since then (a few like CHK, even more). The OSX stuff moved late, but are up maybe 30% in short order. Despite $35/$7, business at the drillers is only so-so: profitability is strained. If they can't do better in a perfect environment, what happens later.

I also believe we are in the midst of my train wreck scenario, that I have described at length here. The stock market will be slaughtered and butchered, and everything will go down including energy plays. I really want to be clear of ALL long positions now. I have a few more energy stocks that go long term in Feb, and March and I've written calls against them, and will just hope they don't go down more than my tax savings for waiting.
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