Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (45003)	1/20/2004 4:01:41 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) of 74559

>>We will get to watch the drama that was the South Sea close up, in 3D 64 mm colour<< That we will. On extended reflection, Jay, I have concluded that we - you and I, that is - expect the same scenario. The difference between us, I think, is only in the timing. My latest thought evolution is that stocks will go somewhat higher, for somewhat longer - a minimum of DOW 26,000 - into the 2010-2012 timeframe. The reason? A large peak of immigration into the US around 1990. Since 1992, US immigration has been dramatically curtailed. This immigration peak will extend the magnitude and duration of the boomer demographic wave (and make the ultimate negative consequences more severe). What follows this will be a worst-case scenario. The 2012-2027 Depression will be so bad that it is literally beyond belief from the cushy perspective of early 2004. I am feeling some cognitive dissonance regarding gold. Two scenarios for gold seem possible. (1) A random walk with a generally lower trend through this decade, as the fear induced by the Nasdaq meltdown recedes, followed by the inevitable price explosion post-2010. (2) A random walk with a generally higher trend and upward spikes through this decade, as the smart money positions itself for post-2010. I tend towards (1) but assign a non-trivial probability to (2).

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