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Politics : HOWARD DEAN -THE NEXT PRESIDENT?

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To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (2198)1/21/2004 12:03:38 AM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (2) of 3079
 
It was a slow day economically with the NAHB Housing Market
Index the only regular hours report. The headline number at
68 was less than consensus at 69 and less than the 70 from
both December and November. Slower sales continue to depress
the market despite the optimistic outlooks by the builders.
With the economy recovering, interest rates low and inventory
levels still light the conditions are ripe for a spring sales
explosion but the winter weather has put sales in the deep
freeze. This would suggest a continued neutral rate decision
by the Fed next week could be the green light for another
run for the builders as investors buy the dip in advance of
the spring thaw. The worst thing that could happen for the
home builders would not be what you would expect. A surge
in the 4Q GDP, due out next week, that would suggest the
recovery is really catching fire could actually push real
interest rates up despite a Fed on hold. Rising economies
can support higher rates but those same rates could slow
home sales. Seems contrary to common sense but that is
real life. More buyers can afford homes in a roaring
economy but they have to pay more for the privilege.
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