I'm afraid I'm back. And what's worse, I wasn't completely wrong about Nokia's CDMA phone. Reading back a couple of days it's nice to see there are people in this group open to different points of view. I tend to think that personal invective and overtly vindictive displays of sentiment in an investment discussion groups end up in backfiring sooner or later.
But about the new 2180 and its properties: there have been some questions raised about the relevance of the stand-by and talk times. This is perfectly reasonable question to pose from investors in a company that has not faced real competition in consumer products. But there is a good reason why I as an investor am kinda obsessed with this issue: that's because consumers are obsessed with it as well. There is ample evidence of this in the tightly contested GSM mobile phone field where over 20 different models are hustling for the spotlight. And experience there shows that models with outdated standby and talk time features are mercilessly pushed aside when new, better equipped competition arrives. There are no exceptions to this rule. Can anyone provide me with one?
If not, it's reasonable to expect that a certain new CDMA phone with 210 minutes of talktime and 76 hours of standby time will make a serious dent in sales of competing products that do not measure up. And does this matter as long as Qualcomm gets licensing fees? Hell, yes, as they say in Texas. QCOM has sunk a king's ransom in handset R&D plus production investments. Wall Street will demand returns from these investments. The company has been striking poses for the investors as a cutting-edge handset manufacturer for quite some time now. So, unless somebody has a real good counterargument, couldn't you refrain from burning incense and chanting "no matter what happens, we'll always have the licensing fees"? That will cut zero ice if investors get wind of plummeting market share in handsets.
The second feature that has a big impact on consumer decision making is weight, of course. As I've understood, Qualcomm's older models weigh over a quarter of a kilogram. And even so, they don't match up with Nokia's model's times. Q-phone will enter the market a month or two later than Nokia's model. Mercifully, I'll refrain from commenting the standby times of that particular model... just to show I don't have tunnel vision.
The accessories can be very important as well. And Nokia seems to be the first CDMA manufacturer to offer the vibration alarm, which here in Europe is de rigueur for anyone attending meetings, going to movies or restaurants, etc. I'd expect American consumers to be just as savvy. Not to mention the extensive car, desktop and power accessories that already exist and have been honed to near-perfection that the world's best-selling mobile phone product series (2100) has had to achieve. I'd be interested in hearing when QCOM plans to match this cornucopia of paraphernalia. BTW, I had a great holiday... moonlight swimming expeditions, cloudberry picking, etc. Wish you were here.
Tero |
