Proof positive that Bush Adm considers Howard Dean the most formidable candidate for Dems. Must always read between the lines written/spoken by Repub campaign strategists. If they truly believed Kerry was hardest to beat they would never admit it
January 21, 2004 - NYT
REPUBLICANS
Kerry Is Seen as Strong but Beatable
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON
ASHINGTON, Jan. 20 — Republicans involved in President Bush's re-election effort said Tuesday that Senator John Kerry would be a more formidable opponent than Howard Dean in November but just as vulnerable to Republican attacks.
Mr. Bush's campaign team spent Tuesday assessing Mr. Kerry's strengths, which they said were considerable but not yet enough to guarantee the nomination. They also said they believed that Dr. Dean's chances of halting his slide were slim.
Despite the upended Democratic field, Bush campaign officials and outside Republican strategists said that the outcome of the Iowa caucuses would not lead to any fundamental change in political strategy for the White House. Mr. Bush's advisers have said for months that they expect a hard-fought race with the Democratic nominee and that they are prepared to run against any of the leading candidates.
"This field is every bit as left-leaning today as it was last week," a Bush campaign official said. "The front-runner today is every bit as negative as the front-runner was last week."
Even so, for months there had been a general assumption within the Bush campaign and among the pollsters and strategists who work with the White House that Dr. Dean, the former governor of Vermont, was the most likely nominee. But Mr. Bush's team had always hedged its bets and continued to plan for the possibility that another candidate could break out of the pack and overtake Dr. Dean.
In an effort to show that they were not caught completely off guard, Republicans cited on Tuesday an internal memorandum written in November by Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign's director of strategy, which said that the Democratic field was "very fluid" and that Dr. Dean was showing signs of vulnerability. Among them was a "1.1 to 1 image ratio," jargon meaning that as Dr. Dean became better known, "as many people in America dislike him as like him," the memorandum said.
Looking ahead to the Democratic convention in Boston in July, several Republicans suggested they would cast Mr. Kerry, of Massachusetts, as a second coming of Michael S. Dukakis, the state's former governor who, as the 1988 Democratic nominee, lost badly to Mr. Bush's father. Mr. Kerry, they noted, was once Mr. Dukakis's lieutenant governor.
A prominent Republican who works with the Bush team said that Mr. Kerry would be tagged as a "Kennedy Democrat" whose long record of Congressional votes provided a rich vein for Bush campaign researchers looking to define him as out of step with the country on social and economic issues.
The Bush team has assembled thick files on the records of all the major Democratic candidates and has devised tactics for running against any of them. In recent weeks, it has dispatched Ed Gillespie, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, to Arkansas, the home state of Gen. Wesley K. Clark, to deliver an attack on him, reflecting concern at the White House that he could emerge as a challenger with a case to make against Mr. Bush's foreign policy record.
Mr. Kerry, they said, offers a particularly big target. Unlike Dr. Dean, who as a governor did not take positions on many national issues, or Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, who has been in the Senate only six years and has a thin record of votes and policy initiatives, Mr. Kerry is serving his fourth term in the Senate, with positions on nearly every public policy issue.
Unlike Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, whose record on Capitol Hill includes many votes that deviated from liberal orthodoxy on both domestic and foreign policy, Mr. Kerry, they said, has a record — especially on social and economic issues — that is easier to portray as too far left for the country.
"He's got one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate," said Charlie Black, a longtime Republican strategist, previewing the way in which the Bush campaign would try to define Mr. Kerry. "Unlike a Lieberman or someone without a voting record, it's going to be very hard to get him out of the left corner."
But Republican strategists said Mr. Kerry had attributes Dr. Dean did not, including a credible claim to experience in foreign policy and a compelling biography.
"In comparison to Dean, I see Kerry as being much more presidential," said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster. "He has made a transition you don't often see senators or congressmen make when they run for president. When you run for a legislative body, voters ask if you are smart enough to legislate. When they are voting for presidents or governors, they ask if you are strong enough to govern. Through the back and forth, Kerry has grown into emphasizing the strength of leadership."
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company |
