Caucuses kick the race wide open
By Susan Page and Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
DES MOINES — The Iowa caucuses, which typically narrow the field by forcing candidates out of the race, this time expanded the number of credible contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Sen. John Edwards celebrates his Iowa finish in Des Moines on Monday.
By J. David Ake, AP
Two candidates who seemed to be out of the running, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, emerged with their campaigns revived after first- and second-place finishes. (Audio analysis: Stunning comeback for Kerry)
Former front-runner Howard Dean, who had hoped that victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would make his nomination seem inevitable, instead found himself in third place and facing a less certain primary season. His missteps and bruising attacks by his rivals raised questions among some voters about whether he was the strongest challenger to President Bush.
And Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, who for a quarter-century has championed the causes of working people and labor unions, saw his national ambitions fade. He said he needed to win the Iowa caucuses, as he did in 1988, for his campaign to survive. He failed.
Even so, after Iowa's caucuses there are more rather than fewer candidates who have an arguable chance to win the nomination. A showdown that was expected in New Hampshire between Dean and retired general Wesley Clark, who stayed out of Iowa, is now a four-way free-for-all.
"There was a huge chunk of undecided voters, and they broke for anybody but the front-runners," says Donna Brazile, who was Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000. "John Kerry and John Edwards have gotten a second life. They got lucky."
They also got better.
Kerry, who started out long-winded and defensive about his vote to authorize the war with Iraq, has become crisper and more focused. Edwards, almost invisible for months in the race here, suddenly gained ground as a positive alternative from the South when Dean and Gephardt exchanged a flurry of attacks and negative ads.
But Dean was thrown off balance by a barrage of criticism in debates and TV ads from other campaigns. Aides say the low point came nine days ago, when Dean lost his temper with an elderly man who praised Bush at length at a town-hall meeting. "You sit down," Dean barked, a moment that was aired on local TV. "You had your say, and now I'm going to have my say."
That night, Dean seemed distracted at the final debate before the caucuses. Challenged by Al Sharpton on his record of appointing minorities in his 11½ years as Vermont governor, Dean looked defensive and unprepared. The next morning, Dean convened senior aides and said he had lost his footing.
In the campaign's final week, Dean campaigned with Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, the state's most durable Democrat. On the last day, aiming to soften the hard edges that were giving some voters pause, he attended church in Plains, Ga., with former president Jimmy Carter and flew in his wife, Judy, for her only appearance in Iowa.
Now Iowa is history. The next tests in rapid succession are New Hampshire on Jan. 27, followed by South Carolina and six other contests on Feb. 3.
"After Feb. 3, if you haven't won one of the nine contests, you need to rethink your candidacy," says Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe, who was circulating among reporters in the cavernous press center here. McAuliffe says he's sure the nominee will have emerged by early March. He has already scheduled a "unity dinner" on March 25 in Washington with former presidents Carter and Bill Clinton and all the candidates who ran this year.
Who has staying power?
•Dean has a fervent core of anti-war voters, the most extensive national organization, the most money in the bank and a demonstrated ability to raise more. That puts him in a strong position to survive a protracted nominating process. "Our plan is to run until June 8," Dean told reporters this weekend. That's the day of the final primaries, in New Jersey and Montana.
His test in New Hampshire: Hold on to his lead, which already has been narrowed.
•Kerry has been boosted by his showing in Iowa but still faces serious challenges. He funneled staff and money from other states into Iowa and New Hampshire, boosting his flagging campaigns there but weakening him for the long haul. He is spending more than $6 million of his own money and needs to prove he can attract donors.
His test in New Hampshire: Close the gap with Dean while stopping Clark's rise.
•Edwards may have even more trouble taking advantage of his stronger-than-expected showing here. After some debate inside his staff, he rejected advice that he skip New Hampshire to focus on South Carolina. Instead, he promises to campaign every day in New Hampshire, a state where polls show his support has been in single digits.
Aides say Edwards' optimistic, above-the-fray campaign could catch on in New Hampshire just as it did in Iowa.
His test in New Hampshire: Show that Iowa wasn't a fluke with a respectable finish before heading to his home territory in the South.
•Clark has gotten a free ride so far, campaigning almost alone in New Hampshire while the other major contenders pummeled one another in Iowa. That's about to end. The Kerry and Dean camps already have pointed out Clark's history of voting for Republican presidential candidates and his conflicting statements about the war in Iraq.
But he's second only to Dean in money in the bank and ability to raise it on the Internet. Voters concerned about terrorism and war like his military background.
His test in New Hampshire: In a mirror of Kerry's challenge, he needs to close the gap with Dean while fending off Kerry's resurgent campaign.
Left out in the New Hampshire's cold is Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who skipped Iowa and has literally moved into an apartment in New Hampshire. But he's still in fifth place and single digits there. He's also trailing in polls in Arizona and other states with Feb. 3 contests where he has spent time and money.
McAuliffe says money and momentum will flow to the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, making it harder for the also-runs to stay in the race. "You don't have the money to put your plane in the air, pay your staff or do television," he says.
So far, the candidates are far enough apart in New Hampshire that next week's primary is likely to winnow the field.
Of course, that's how they started in Iowa, too. |
