Bush May Seek Billions for Iraq After Election
Wed January 21, 2004 08:04 PM ET
By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush may seek an additional $40 billion or more for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan next year -- on top of the $400 billion military budget he will send to Congress next month, congressional sources and budget analysts said on Wednesday.
But Bush is unlikely to send the request to Congress until after the November presidential election, minimizing any political damage, the sources said.
Bush's Democratic challengers have criticized the high cost of the war in Iraq and its chaotic aftermath. In a statement, candidate Howard Dean accused Bush of misleading the American people in his State of Union address by not detailing the full financial burden.
Democrats say Iraq has cost $120 billion so far despite initial administration assurances that it would be "an affordable endeavor."
White House budget officials said it is premature to speculate about an emergency war supplemental for the 2005 fiscal year starting Oct. 1.
But congressional sources said preliminary planning is underway and a request is likely to be sent to Congress in late 2004 or early 2005.
"Every presidential contender is going to be subject to political demands. But no matter who wins (the election), we're going to see a request," one congressional aide said.
Its size could vary widely depending on the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, budget analysts and congressional aides said.
If the administration can reduce the number of troops there from more than 100,000 to 75,000, about another $25 billion would be needed in fiscal 2005 to supplement the military's regular budget, said Steven Kosiak, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
Operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere could add another $15 billion. Kosiak said the emergency request could total $40 billion to $50 billion.
Other analysts and congressional aides said it could be closer to $75 billion or $100 billion. U.S. military plans hinge on a smooth hand-over of political power by June 30 and rebuilding the Iraqi Army.
"They're playing it week by week because they don't know ... Things could go worse than expected or they could go better than expected," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a defense policy research group.
A senior congressional aide attributed the push for additional funds to concerns that Bush's "new budget contains little or no money for Iraq's shadow rulers after June 30."
TOPPING OFF
Bush won approval from Congress last year for two war supplementals -- one for $79 billion and another for $87.5 billion for Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
"It's a little early to be speculating about the deployment (in Iraq) for October and beyond," an administration official said on Wednesday.
Bush has been under pressure from his conservative Republican base to rein in record budget deficits, expected to hit $500 billion this fiscal year alone.
In his $2.3 trillion budget for fiscal 2005, to be sent to Congress on Feb. 2, Bush wants to limit growth in discretionary spending to less than 4 percent. The Defense Department is expected to receive more than $400 billion, a modest increase.
That would cover normal Pentagon activities -- not peacekeeping or combat operations, which would be funded through an emergency request.
"It is uncertain what level of resources will be required and it's uncertain when they will need it. But they will need to have to come to ask for additional money at some point in fiscal 2005," said Kosiak.
Others said the administration would need up to $100 billion on top of the Pentagon's normal budget, and the only issue was timing.
"From a budget standpoint, I don't think they have to put in another (supplemental) this year," Pike said.
Proposing it before the election would only "give the Democrats an opportunity to stage another food fight on the president's Iraq policy," Pike added.
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