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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who started this subject	1/22/2004 1:07:31 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (4) of 33421

Deflation ahoy! US Treasuries appear set on reaching even lower yields. USD_M3 appears to be falling despite: 1) Lowest rates in decades. 2) Record readings of GDP growth rate (statistics damned statistics). => There is no investment demand relative to supply We have seen USD_M3 deflate relative to POG for the past 3 years. If it is now deflating for real, then the US is becoming Japan. Gold needs to break 396/5 to form a new monthly low still. But if bonds keep on rising; if gold keeps on falling; if USD_M3 continues to drop then stocks will look increasingly precarious. -macavity

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