Sitting Pretty?
by Franklin Foer
Only at TNR Online
Post date: 01.22.04
About two-and-a-half years ago, the summer before September 11, John Edwards stopped by TNR for an off-the-record lunch. It was the height of a media swoon for him. Puffy profiles hailed him as a self-made man, Bill Clinton's heir, and a trial lawyer so silver-tongued he constantly flooded the jury box with tears. And for all these reasons, I disliked him. The media's love affair seemed an unfortunate overreaction against Al Gore's flaws. Where Gore suffered from intellectualism, Edwards was a vacuous pretty boy. Unlike the Fairfax Hotel-bred Gore, Edwards wasn't a creature of Washington. In fact, he had almost no political experience at all.
But over the course of the last year, Edwards has slowly overcome my doubts. He has achieved a nice fluency in domestic policy--and has deftly dressed up old-fashioned populism in Reaganesque hues. On the stump, he has an undeniable gift. In short, he's becoming too damn good to resist.
After watching him this past week, I know that a lot of people--OK, my mom and wife--have had the same reaction. But before giving into his charms and investing psychic energy rooting for his campaign, they want an answer to the obvious question: Does the pretty boy have a prayer of winning the nomination?
Let's break this down into a series of smaller questions:
Will he squander his campaign in New Hampshire? Edwards will spend the next few days stumping the state. As of last night's Zogby tracking poll, he's still stuck in single digits. If you listen to unadulterated campaign spin, there are plenty of reasons why he should end up doing much better than this: Edwards has sexy endorsements (like New Hampshire State Senator Lou D'Allesandro). His operation in the state will be run by Nick Baldick and Caroline McCarley, the two most pivotal operatives in Al Gore's grinding down of Bill Bradley in the last New Hampshire primary. And with Dean's collapse, there will be plenty of uncommitted voters for him to scoop up with his epic charm.
But the unadulterated campaign spin darts past a pretty big strategic argument: There's an opportunity cost to playing in New Hampshire. Every day he spends there is a day spent away from South Carolina. And without a victory in the state of his birth, he has admitted that he will be forced to join Dick Gephardt for cocktails in the loser's lounge.
Perhaps it's simply evidence of my growing male crush, but I more or less buy the unadulterated campaign spin. Two other points: 1) Edwards needs as much national attention as he can get in the coming week. It helps him hit up New York and Hollywood donors, whom he needs to replenish his bank account. The only place to grab airtime this week is in New Hampshire. 2) Expectations for an Edwards victory in New Hampshire are pretty low. If he does better than fourth place, it gives him another success. If he falls on his face, the damage will be minimal.
What happens on February 3? Edwards wants the media and his opponents to stay focused on South Carolina, ignoring the six other primaries that day. He doesn't want too many sideshows that would minimize the importance of a win. Two developments could muddle this approach. 1) Some Kerry staffers are talking about pulling their candidate out of South Carolina. He could claim some other primary in a swing state, like Missouri or Arizona, to be a better test of electability. 2) Edwards is also talking about tinkering with his strategy. Instead of focusing exclusively on South Carolina, his campaign might also try to compete in Missouri. With Gephardt in the race, nobody dared challenge him on his home court. With Gephardt out, the delegate-rich state is suddenly wide open. It might be too delectable an opportunity for Edwards to pass up. But he shouldn't let his eyes get bigger than his stomach. It would be dumb to divert attention from South Carolina, where he can't afford to finish second. Besides, Gephardt's name is still on the Missouri ballot. Sentimental voters might punch his chad for the heck of it.
Does the native son have South Carolina in the bag? My mealy-mouthed answer is: 1) That depends on how many rural whites, who like his accent, show up to vote. Just as he camped out in small-town Iowa, he's spent countless days canvassing upstate hamlets like Gaffney, Andersonville, and Dovesville. Gephardt and his trade message had played well in mill towns in this neck of South Carolina. With Gephardt's departure, Edwards has a clear opportunity to grow this part of his base. (All the other candidates have steered clear of upstate, focusing on the Charleston-Columbia-Greenville corridor.) 2) It depends on how the black vote shakes out. Edwards is guessing that Sharpton's share of the black vote won't grow, because Sharpton is already so well-known in the community. In competing for the rest of the black vote, he's hoping that it reacts to Kerry and Dean the same way it tossed aside Gary Hart and Paul Tsongas. This sounds plausible to my honky, Yankee ears. More than Clark, who also claims to be a Southerner, Edwards does have a history of successfully wooing black votes. Enormous black turnout put him over the top against Lauch Faircloth in his 1998 U.S. Senate race. Bonus black turnout analysis: While Sharpton has genuine animus toward Dean, he has been highly complimentary of Edwards; he will try to kneecap Dean, but not Edwards. 3) It depends on the extent to which Clark and Kerry split the veterans vote, neutralizing one another--something Edwards must be praying for at this point.
Does he have the cash? Edwards has milked every trial lawyer in the country--and their wives, brothers, and fourth cousins--for the legally maximum $2,000 contribution. Where will his next cash infusion come from? So far, the results are reasonably promising. In the 24 hours after the Iowa caucuses, he yielded a Dean-like take of $250,000 from the Web. Hollywood and New York moneybags have acquired a sudden interest in him, too. Still, he needs to raise a boatload in order to stay in the race. By one estimate, competing in the seven primaries to be held on February 3 will cost at least $750,000.
Franklin Foer is an associate editor at TNR.
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