Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 230.15

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Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: BWAC who wrote (8548)	1/22/2004 9:09:16 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 25522

RE: "The time to safely buy was long ago. Multi year trend up or not, now is the time to figure out how not to lose what was made." I am not sure that it was "safer" to buy when the threat of double dip recesion and deflation were concerns. Certainly, hindsight proves it was "safe". I think it is "safe" to buy when there is a sufficient level of uncertainty and fear. The community of "experts" expects the semi-equip peak to be in 2005. The current prices pretty much discount that peak. Of course, the "experts" have never seen the effect of a technology bubble aftermath on the semi and semi-equip industries and have not been able to get a handle on what is going on. These "experts" don't talk about the effect industry changes might have on customer order patterns and the nature of the industy's cyclicality. These "experts" have no vision for the direction applications will take and for the strength of the Moore's Law engine and its ability to drive applications. I am more optimistic than the "experts" and I think it is still safe to hold quality semi and semi-equip stocks and to watch what is unfolding. So far, Q4 2003 is the best quarter since the downturn started. Order rates are jumping for the semi-equips and sales and profits are accelerating for the semis. I have posted about "protection." Recently, I talked about estimating cycle peaks and selling when prices discount them. I said that current prices discount a 2005 peak but I am looking for a 2007 peak. It is usually not easy to buy or sell well. I think that recent history supports the urge to sell after a run up of short duration, but I think it will be the wrong thing to do this time. I have said before that my stock potfolio is a small % of my assets (25% of liquid assets, 14% of total assets). I think this allows me to be more aggressive and to hold on for higher prices and bigger gains. Certainly, people who have a higher % of their assets in these stocks should follow Kirk's example and continue to lighten up as the prices move higher and the profits grow.

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