Analysts see Blair surviving stormy week
Fri 23 January, 2004 12:10
reuters.co.uk
[Note #1 "the experts" are often wrong on many things.. pb]
By Toni Vorobyova and Ruth Pitchford
LONDON (Reuters) - Tony Blair is likely to end next week bruised but not beaten after tackling party rebels and hearing a judge's verdict on why an Iraq weapons expert committed suicide, a Reuters poll predicts.
A Reuters poll of 18 political analysts showed Blair would emerge without much permanent damage and all but two said Blair would lead the ruling Labour Party into the next general election, widely expected some time in 2005.
Eight of the political analysts said judge Lord Hutton was unlikely to criticise Blair personally in his report on events leading up to the death of government scientist David Kelly, three said chances were even and four said direct criticism was likely. Three gave no answer.
"I think it's going to damage him, but not fatally," said David Carlton at the University of Warwick.
"Many prime ministers have been damaged and carried on for quite some time. It's rather unusual actually for a prime minister to be absolutely toppled in one fell swoop."
Kelly killed himself after being exposed as the source for a BBC report which said Blair's team had "sexed up" the threat posed by then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to justify war.
Most of the political analysts expected Defence Minister Geoff Hoon to resign in response to the report, but downplayed the damage that might do to Blair's government.
Hutton is due to give his verdict on January 28. The day before, Blair needs to persuade rebels in his own Labour Party to approve plans to charge students more for higher education.
In the case of student funding, most analysts thought Blair would narrowly avoid his first defeat on a major policy issue in parliament, where Labour has a substantial majority.
But student funding reform could still cause him headaches as it goes through the House of Lords, parliament's second chamber, which can block legislation for up to a year.
"I think... he will get the fees through on just a few votes, but if that's the case, the House of Lords will feel that they can have open season on it," said a politics professor at a British university, who declined to be named.
"A year on something this unpopular is a long time."
However, most political analysts expect Blair to hold on to power until mid-way through his third term as Prime Minister, when 14 of the analysts expect Chancellor Gordon Brown to succeed him. |
