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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (6001)1/23/2004 3:41:04 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Everybody (institutions, brokers, traders) is off side on this, mostly because they have a vested interest in "permanently lowering rates". You heard it here first.

Everyone is long looking for rates to go lower?
You are in fantasy land.
Everyone is talking inflation not deflation, including the cat and dog next door.
A sudden reversal from the FED is more fantasy land material IMO. The easy prediction goes exactly like this:

1)Right now the risks of disinflation and inflation are evenly balanced bla bla bla

2)blah bla bla JOBS bla bla bla

3)If and when we see the economy creating jobs at a fast enough pace to be self sustaining bla bla bla bla we will act to head of inflation in a timely manner

4) OIL blah blah blah geopolitical risks blah blah stabalization after we exit Iraq, blah bla blah, Iraq Democracy bla bla bla

5) GOLD, SILVER bla bla bla TERRORISM bla bla bla

6)blah blah bla PRODUCTIVITY bla bl bla bla JOBS bla bla bla

7)Given that we are more concerned about being wrong on the disinflation side bla bla bla we will keep our policy in place for a considerable period bla bla bla

Match that with what is said next week.

At any rate we find out on Tuesday/Wed from the FED, and then FEB 6-7 (I think) from the ECB.

M
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